The industry spent 2026 predicting what AI would do to hiring. We asked 500 HR and talent leaders what they actually bought, what they put to work and what changed, then graded the predictions.
The loudest forecast of the year said AI could eliminate as much as half of HR staffing. Across our Class of 2026, 58% grew their HR and talent headcount in the past twelve months and 20% cut it. We graded that call, and the rest of the year's predictions, in the Report Card.
In September 2026 we surveyed 500 HR and talent leaders at US-headquartered companies with 250 or more employees: 100 CHROs and Chief People Officers, and 400 heads of talent and talent acquisition. We expected the executives setting AI strategy and the leaders putting it into practice to see it differently. They were far more aligned than we anticipated. The differences that mattered were somewhere else.
We sorted the Class by how leaders rate their own hiring against their peers on six outcomes. The Upper Classmen, 37% of the Class, rate themselves above average on all six. The Freshmen, 34%, rate themselves above average on three or fewer.
The Upper Classmen have six AI capabilities in production. The Freshmen have two and a half. They also finished more of the unglamorous work first: training, data and process ownership, vendor contract terms, manager enablement and internal mobility. None of it made the headlines in the year's AI predictions.
What the market promised, what vendors shipped and what analysts chose to measure.
Who is in the Class, what is actually running, and what the Upper Classmen finished that the Freshmen did not.
The Report Card. We grade the year's predictions, including our own.
Eight teams recognized for what they built and how they showed up.
Five moves that pay off in any forecast, and the gap to close in 2027.
Set the numbers next to your own. Where do you sit against the Upper Classmen on training, process ownership, vendor terms, managers and mobility? If you want to work through it with us, we run workshops and advisory built on this research.
Research funded by ICIMS. Kyle & Co designed and analyzed the survey and retained editorial control over the findings and conclusions.
