Every January, HR and talent leaders are inundated with predictions about what’s coming next. New year, new buzzwords, same promises.
AI will “transform everything.”
Skills will “finally matter.”
HR will “become strategic.”
The problem isn’t that these ideas are wrong. It’s that they assume a level of tolerance for “good enough” talent outcomes that most organizations no longer have.
Right now, HR teams are being asked to hire more selectively, move talent more intelligently, develop skills more precisely, and explain decisions more clearly—often with fewer resources, messier data, and higher stakes than ever before.
That’s why we’re betting that the HR teams that win won’t be the ones with the most AI.
They’ll be the ones who can defend decisions, design roles for judgment, and turn data into action—with discipline, under constraint.
And… in true Kyle & Co fashion, we’ve come with some receipts to back this bet.
Our research shows that while nearly half of organizations are increasing investment in AI across HR, only a small minority have mature governance, integration, and decision frameworks in place.
In other words, ambition is accelerating faster than the systems, roles, and operating models required to support it. And that problem is going to play out this year in some big ways.
Over the past year, we paired that research—spanning AI adoption, quality of hire (QOH), workforce planning, and HR tech maturity—with direct input from senior leaders convened in a Research Advisory Council (RAC) hosted in Boston in December (special thanks to our friends at Brighthire and our hosts at Rapid7).
Across industries and functions, the message was consistent: 2026 won’t reward bold ideas. It will reward operational credibility and resilience.
Here are the five shifts that will define the year ahead.